The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity after the February 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent U.S.-Israeli strikes has anchored trader expectations that collapse will not occur by October 31. A new supreme leader assumed office, the IRGC consolidated influence, and nationalist rallies offset internal dissent amid ongoing economic sanctions, oil export disruptions, and sporadic protests met with executions and arrests. U.S. intelligence assessments and the absence of coordinated nationwide uprisings or military defections reinforce the view that rapid systemic failure remains improbable in the remaining days. Late-breaking developments such as sudden elite fractures, mass coordinated demonstrations, or escalated external military action could still shift dynamics, though none appear imminent within the narrow window.