Recent stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran over Strait of Hormuz reopening terms explain the market's strong tilt toward no agreement by October 23. Key sticking points include Iran's insistence on addressing transit security and revenue-sharing before nuclear restrictions, U.S. demands for immediate nuclear talks, and unresolved details on routes with Oman. With only days remaining and mediators reporting incomplete responses to proposals, traders see limited room for a binding deal. A last-minute breakthrough via intermediaries or major concessions on sanctions relief and blockade suspension could still shift the outcome, though such steps would need swift formalization to meet the deadline.