**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and sustained Iranian attacks on commercial vessels have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely restricted since late February 2026, with AIS-visible commercial transits averaging roughly 8-10% of pre-crisis levels (around 8 per day versus 85 normally) as of mid-October.** Recent weeks saw at least a dozen tanker strikes, including drone and projectile incidents reported by UKMTO, alongside Iranian assertions of control requiring permits and a U.S. naval presence enforcing elements of a blockade. These dynamics, coupled with elevated war-risk insurance premiums and shipowner avoidance, underpin the 99.2% market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by October 31. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting outcomes include a rapid diplomatic breakthrough, ceasefire agreement, or abrupt de-escalation between Iran and U.S./allied forces that could restore safe passage within the narrow remaining window, though current escalation trends make such developments improbable.