Persistent Iranian attacks on tankers and U.S. enforcement of a blockade have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted since February 2026, with AIS-visible transits averaging just 8-9 vessels daily—roughly 10% of the pre-crisis baseline of 80-plus. Recent October strikes, including multiple outbound tankers hit by projectiles, have further curtailed flows and sustained Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reflecting market-implied odds of sustained disruption through late November. Stalled diplomatic efforts and Iranian demands for control over routes reinforce trader consensus around the 93.5% probability assigned to “No.” A rapid de-escalation or operational workaround enabling full normalization remains possible but faces significant barriers given ongoing hostilities and selective transit conditions.