Persistent geopolitical tensions, including the US blockade of Iranian ports and ongoing attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, continue to suppress commercial traffic well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 75–85 vessels per day. Recent data show AIS-visible crossings averaging just 5–9 per day in early October, with October oil outflows estimated at under 1 million barrels daily versus prior norms near 20 million. High war-risk insurance premiums (15–30 times peacetime levels) and rerouting incentives further constrain volumes. The market’s tight spread across low-volume bins reflects uncertainty over potential near-term de-escalation or coordinated escorted transits versus sustained disruptions, with traders weighting recent attack frequency and naval coordination heavily in probability assessments.