**Ongoing geopolitical conflict and maritime attacks have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, anchoring trader consensus around 25-34 weekly transits.** Persistent IRGC threats, multiple tanker strikes in early October, and war-risk insurance premiums at 15-30 times peacetime levels have made standard passages uneconomical, driving most operators to reroute, use shuttle operations, or transit dark (AIS-off). AIS-visible counts for the period averaged roughly 4-8 ships daily against a pre-crisis baseline near 75-85, with October 5 showing 17 crossings amid broader weekly figures in the low-to-mid 20s. Elevated Brent crude prices near $100-105 reflect the supply risk, while Kpler and IMF PortWatch data underscore the gap between visible flows and total throughput. Key near-term catalysts include any de-escalation signals or further incidents that could shift the narrow 25-29 versus 30-34 bands.