Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels and subsequent attacks, have suppressed Bab el-Mandeb transits while select container carriers accelerate returns via alliances like Premier, lifting September weekly counts toward 264–290 per Lloyd’s List data and daily averages near 30 ships per IMF PortWatch. This creates tight competitive dynamics among the 170–229 weekly bins as traders weigh partial recovery against persistent risks of diversions, older fleets, doubled protective AIS messaging, and reduced Saudi crude loadings. Key differentiators include upcoming naval escort availability under Operation Aspides, any fresh Houthi escalations near Mocha or Perim Island, and carrier routing shifts that could swing volumes by 20–40 ships weekly. Market-implied odds reflect this balance between rebound momentum and unresolved security volatility.