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Oct 12, 2026

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See the polymarkets that moved the most in the last 24 hours

1
icon for Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?

Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?

3%
43%
2
icon for Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?

71%
38%
3
icon for Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1?

Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1?

5%
38%
4
icon for Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

89%
29%
5
icon for US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

23%
28%
6
icon for Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?

88%
23%
7
icon for Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?

66%
22%
8
icon for Will Les Républicains hold 121-124 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

Will Les Républicains hold 121-124 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

100%
22%
9
icon for Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?

Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?

0%
21%
10
icon for Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting?

Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting?

69%
17%
11
icon for Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?

Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?

24%
15%
12
icon for Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?

67%
14%
13
icon for Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

56%
13%
14
icon for Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

55%
13%
15
icon for Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

91%
13%
16
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?

22%
13%
17
icon for Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

40%
12%
18
icon for Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?

31%
12%
19
icon for Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%
11%
20
icon for Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?

Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?

69%
11%
21
icon for Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

33%
9%
22
icon for Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?

Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 15?

100%
9%
23
icon for Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?

Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?

85%
8%
24
icon for Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?

Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?

8%
8%
25
icon for Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?

Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?

62%
8%

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Breaking news

Oct 12, 2:22 PM

Pivotal Research raises its SpaceX price target from $230, citing Starlink Mobile's massive growth potential.

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Oct 12, 2:09 PM

Kid Rock reveals he collaborated with Eminem on his new Christian album, "Halfway 2 Jesus," despite their political differences.

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Oct 12, 2:04 PM

NASA investigates massive hole on the Moon that scientists believe could lead into an enormous cave potentially suitable for future astronaut bases.

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Oct 12, 1:51 PM

Hackers remotely defrost refrigerators at hundreds of French supermarkets, causing massive food spoilage.

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Oct 12, 1:46 PM

Former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warns there is "no easy way out" of the Iran conflict, as both countries believe they can outlast each other.

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Oct 12, 1:38 PM

Starbucks declares "we are not buying Chipotle," dismissing rumors of what could have been the largest restaurant deal in history.

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Oct 12, 1:32 PM

Global smartphone shipments plunge 20%, marking the worst third quarter in 14 years as AI-driven memory shortages drive up prices.

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Oct 12, 1:16 PM

Activity on several major U.S. political subreddits plunges following attacks on Russian data centers.

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Oct 12, 1:08 PM

New video game "Hood Warfare 2" lets players join rival Chicago gangs, customize weapons, & battle for control of the city's streets.

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Oct 12, 12:48 PM

ICE agents raid Rep. Ilhan Omar's home in a search tied to alleged immigration paperwork fraud.

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Oct 12, 12:16 PM

Mamdani to skip NYC’s Columbus Day parade on Fifth Avenue, breaking with decades of mayoral tradition.

New polymarket

Oct 12, 11:37 AM

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

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Oct 12, 10:21 AM

Trump announces Katie Zacharia will give her introductory White House press conference Tuesday morning as she begins her term as Press Secretary.

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Oct 12, 9:21 AM

Trump administration reportedly lifts restrictions on U.S. AI companies sharing their latest models with Britain's AI Security Institute for safety evaluations.

New polymarket

Oct 12, 8:12 AM

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law?

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Oct 12, 7:43 AM

Taiwan's defense minister announces the military is “closely monitoring” Chinese live-fire exercises across five coastal areas.

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Oct 12, 6:23 AM

Chinese AI startup Moonshot is reportedly in talks to settle a $700+ million shareholder dispute ahead of its IPO.

New polymarket

Oct 12, 5:12 AM

Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by…

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Oct 12, 4:14 AM

South Korean won surges to its highest level in two years.

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Oct 12, 3:16 AM

China sanctions officials from Paraguay & Belize over their countries' diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

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Oct 12, 2:01 AM

North Korea launches multiple ballistic missiles toward the sea off its eastern coast.

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Oct 12, 1:18 AM

Federal judge orders Trump administration to stop using taxpayer money to fund political advertisements featuring Trump ahead of the midterms.

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Oct 11, 11:58 PM

New Yorkers are now outliving the average American by more than 4 years, with NYC's life expectancy reaching a record high of 83.2 years.

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Oct 11, 11:48 PM

Microsoft President Brad Smith warns that AI is “less regulated than milk.”

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Oct 11, 11:31 PM

Deep-sea rocks collected by U.S. government scientists unexpectedly burst into flames during laboratory testing.

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Oct 11, 11:11 PM

Next Claude Fable model projected to be released within two weeks — 62% chance.

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Oct 11, 10:47 PM

India condemns JD Vance's remarks about H-1B workers as “deeply offensive”

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Oct 11, 10:42 PM

Mike Tyson declares “I think Donald Trump will win” when asked about Republicans' chances in the midterm elections.

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Oct 11, 10:16 PM

NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani sparks backlash after celebrating Italian Heritage Month by praising a former congressman with ties to the Communist Party.

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Oct 11, 9:34 PM

Texas Senate race shifts into “Tossup” territory amid growing questions surrounding James Talarico's mysterious 13-day absence. Paxton surges to a 42% chance to win.

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Oct 11, 8:58 PM

Tobey Maguire marries his ex-wife to another man, officiating her lavish Hawaiian wedding to billionaire heir Geoff Ogunlesi.

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Oct 11, 8:43 PM

Amazon reportedly in talks to acquire AI startup Decart for approximately $7,000,000,000.00.

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Oct 11, 8:03 PM

Georgia police officer fired after investigators found he repeatedly used Flock surveillance cameras to track his ex-girlfriend's vehicle.

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Oct 11, 7:24 PM

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver reveals the league may introduce “smart basketballs” with embedded microchips as early as 2027.

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Oct 11, 7:04 PM

Treasure hunter discovers nearly 1,000 ancient Roman silver coins buried in a German field — a fortune equivalent to roughly 6 years of a Roman soldier's disposable income.

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Oct 11, 6:42 PM

Kentucky GOP Senate candidate Andy Barr calls his Democratic opponent Charles Booker the “Mamdani of Kentucky.”

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Oct 11, 6:33 PM

Trump administration reportedly warns Ukraine it could lose access to U.S. weapons & intelligence if it continues striking Russian oil refineries. — FT

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Oct 11, 5:59 PM

Sen. Chuck Grassley, third in line for the U.S. presidency, files paperwork for reelection in 2028 — would be 101 by the end of his term.

Breaking news

Oct 11, 5:49 PM

Zelenskyy offers to hold elections in Ukraine if Putin agrees to a 60-day ceasefire, after Trump said it was “time for Ukraine to get a new president.”

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Oct 11, 5:29 PM

“The Social Reckoning” flops in its opening weekend, earning just $5.5 million compared to the original The Social Network's $22 million debut in 2010.

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Oct 11, 5:04 PM

Kamala Harris's husband, Doug Emhoff, has reportedly told multiple people in private that he doesn't want her to run for president again. — WSJ

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Breaking news

Oct 11, 4:20 PM

Trump brings out Kid Rock at Tennessee rally, hoping the rock star will motivate Republican voters to turn out for the midterms.

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Oct 11, 4:05 PM

Scientists warn Pacific Ocean temperatures have surged to a record 6°F above normal, fueling what could become the strongest El Niño in recorded history.

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Oct 11, 3:13 PM

Zelensky says Trump's announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia & Ukraine “was news to me.”

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Oct 11, 2:55 PM

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham claims Russia “clearly” interfered in the 2016 Brexit vote.

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Oct 11, 2:30 PM

Trump announces an immediate “energy ceasefire” between Russia & Ukraine, with both countries agreeing to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.

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Oct 11, 1:19 PM

Democratic Socialists of America demand NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani fire NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch, abolish two police units, & “drive ICE out of the city.”

New polymarket

Oct 11, 12:18 PM

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

Breaking news

Oct 11, 11:13 AM

Students in Azerbaijan walk out of classrooms in protest over government restrictions on Islamic hijabs in schools.

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Oct 11, 10:24 AM

Spanish lawyer Miriam González Durántez launches Democracy21, a new centrist party promising to challenge Spain's political establishment.

New polymarket

Oct 11, 9:19 AM

EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...?

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Oct 11, 8:01 AM

UK government launches emergency weather preparedness taskforce as forecasters warn of an “unusually stormy winter.”

New polymarket

Oct 11, 7:19 AM

Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

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Oct 11, 7:11 AM

Eritrea urges the United Nations to intervene in its escalating military standoff with Ethiopia.

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Oct 11, 6:10 AM

6,500+ healthcare workers worldwide sign petition demanding the Israeli Medical Association be expelled from the World Medical Association.

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Oct 11, 5:52 AM

Japan holds competitive sleeping tournament, offering $15,000 to whoever can fall asleep fastest & sleep the deepest during a 90-minute contest.

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Oct 11, 4:17 AM

South Korea completes its first commercial round trip to Europe through the Arctic, opening the door to a shipping route that could slash voyage times by roughly one-third.

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Oct 11, 3:18 AM

2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner Navi Pillay condemns Trump's sweeping sanctions on the International Criminal Court as “unheard of”

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Oct 11, 2:43 AM

Virginia animal shelter claims noise from a nearby AI data center is “terrifying” its rescue dogs & disrupting their daily walks.

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Oct 11, 1:18 AM

U.S. home prices have skyrocketed +441% since 1984, more than double the +210% rise in inflation over the same period.

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Oct 11, 12:27 AM

Bitcoin now more likely to crash below $70,000 than reclaim $100,000 this year.

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Oct 10, 11:58 PM

Reno, Nevada, moves to shut down its entire city-operated Flock surveillance camera network.

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Oct 10, 11:30 PM

WHO reveals the cause of death remains “unknown” for the Russian plague lab worker whose death sparked fears of an outbreak.

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Oct 10, 11:13 PM

DOJ launches antitrust investigation into ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC, & Fox News after the networks collectively suspended coverage of the president.

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Oct 10, 10:46 PM

Trump reveals he’s considering renaming either the Pacific or Atlantic Ocean to “Trump Ocean.”

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Oct 10, 10:26 PM

Nikita Bier reveals Bluesky users have been returning to 𝕏 “in droves” over recent weeks.

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Oct 10, 9:52 PM

House Speaker Mike Johnson announces plans to advance legislation restricting federal use of Flock surveillance cameras.

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Oct 10, 9:28 PM

Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent wishes Sen. Elizabeth Warren a “Happy Indigenous Peoples’ Day”

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Oct 10, 8:57 PM

President Trump declares Iran is a "lunatic country."

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Oct 10, 8:48 PM

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear emerges as the frontrunner to be the first Democrat to launch a 2028 presidential campaign. 21% chance.

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Oct 10, 8:17 PM

Nicolas Cage declares “I'm not an AI-friendly actor,” vowing to never work with Amazon again over its embrace of AI & $50 billion OpenAI investment.

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Oct 10, 7:57 PM

Looksmaxxer Clavicular declares “I will be the world’s youngest billionaire,” revealing an astonishing number of investors are flocking to back his male makeup startup.