**Ongoing Houthi targeting of Saudi-affiliated vessels since the July 2026 blockade declaration, combined with territorial gains near the strait in September, continues to suppress full traffic recovery despite partial carrier returns.** Recent IMF Portwatch and Lloyd’s List data show weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits averaging roughly 280–314 vessels in late September and early October—equating to daily rates near 30—driven by containerships shifting back from the Cape route as alliances like Premier resume Suez services. However, tanker volumes remain constrained, many vessels transit dark, and affiliation-based risks keep non-Saudi cargo selective. This dynamic anchors trader consensus around the 25–29 daily average band for the October 31 seven-day moving average, with limited upside absent de-escalation before month-end.