**Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a Saudi shipping blockade since July 2026, coupled with September territorial gains near the strait, continues to suppress Bab el-Mandeb transits.** IMF PortWatch data show a 7-day average near 30 vessels per day in the week ending October 4, 2026, with tanker traffic especially constrained at roughly 9 per day—well below pre-crisis levels of around 70 total daily transits. Selective rerouting by carriers, elevated war-risk premiums, and affiliation-based targeting have capped recovery, anchoring recent weekly averages in the mid-to-high 20s. Trader consensus prices the 25-29 band at 56.5% as the most probable outcome for the October 31 7-day moving average, reflecting this stabilized but depressed equilibrium amid persistent geopolitical friction.