The Swiss National Bank’s December 10 assessment carries a 73.4% market-implied probability of no change to the 0% policy rate, with a 23.1% chance of a 25 basis point hike, reflecting trader consensus that inflation remains comfortably inside the 0–2% price-stability band. September CPI reached 1.0%, the highest since 2024, driven by imported energy costs and a weaker franc, yet the SNB’s September conditional forecast still projects average inflation of only 0.7% for 2026 and 0.8% thereafter assuming unchanged rates. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth, revised upward to 1.5–2% for 2026, and resilient pharmaceutical exports have prompted some private forecasts for an earlier tightening, but recent SNB communications emphasize that medium-term pressures have risen only modestly and that the current stance remains appropriate. The next key data points and any further oil-price or currency moves will determine whether the modest hike probability builds ahead of the meeting.