Yemeni government-aligned forces, including the Southern Giants Brigades, recaptured Perim Island and adjacent Bab al-Mandeb positions from Houthi fighters on October 9 following advances on strategic high ground and clashes near Dhubab, shifting control of the critical Red Sea chokepoint after the Houthis seized it in mid-September amid their coastal offensive. Ongoing airstrikes under operations targeting Houthi rear areas, naval movements, and reported Houthi reinforcements sustain uncertainty over whether government forces can consolidate primary military authority or if Houthis will mount a sustained counteroffensive. Traders price the leading December 31 resolution date near even odds because these ground-level developments and the island’s role in maritime security create a narrow window for further territorial shifts before year-end, while historical patterns of fluid control in Yemen’s western governorates underscore the potential for rapid reversals.