Recent US precision strikes have targeted Iranian military assets on Kharg Island, including air defenses, radar, and naval facilities, while leaving oil export infrastructure intact and operational. Iranian officials reported normal crude loadings and terminal activity through early October 2026, with tanker tracking showing vessels positioned for exports despite regional tensions and prior disruptions. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to loss of Iranian control by year-end, reflecting the absence of ground operations or seizure amid ongoing diplomatic pressures over Strait of Hormuz access. Scheduled US deadlines and potential further strikes on military sites remain key variables that could influence escalation risks without necessarily shifting territorial control.