**Persistent regime cohesion amid economic protests and external military pressure underpins the 77.5% trader-implied probability that the Islamic Republic survives past 2027.** Sustained demonstrations since late 2025, triggered by rial depreciation and inflation, have spread across provinces but remain fragmented without centralized leadership capable of challenging core institutions. The IRGC and security apparatus have responded with widespread arrests, executions of protesters, and internet restrictions, preserving control even after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026 strikes and subsequent elite fissures. Intermittent U.S.-Israeli actions, shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and failed ceasefires have imposed costs without triggering state collapse, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments that the clerical leadership retains authority. With roughly 14 months until the 2028 threshold, these structural barriers—repressive capacity, opposition disorganization, and lack of rapid tipping events—align with market pricing that views full regime change as unlikely in the near term.