The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders, with Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed as successor within days and the IRGC consolidating operational control. Security forces have suppressed subsequent protests through mass arrests and executions, while external attacks appear to have rallied nationalist sentiment and reduced elite defections. Economic strain from sanctions and wartime damage persists, yet the regime has maintained core coercive structures and avoided fragmentation. Traders assign a 94.5% probability against regime change before 2027, reflecting the system's proven capacity to absorb leadership decapitation and sustained pressure without triggering the elite splits or mass defections historically associated with rapid collapse.