The high implied probability against regime collapse by mid-2027 stems primarily from the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 death in U.S.-Israeli strikes and the subsequent rapid confirmation of Mojtaba Khamenei. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has consolidated operational control amid ongoing economic protests triggered by rial depreciation and external bombardment, while suppressing fragmented unrest through arrests and force. Recent leadership frictions and succession stresses have not produced elite defections or organized opposition capable of overturning the system. Traders assess that the regime’s coercive apparatus, wartime cohesion, and institutional continuity outweigh near-term pressures, consistent with its historical capacity to endure sanctions, protests, and military setbacks over the resolution window.