Iran's political landscape features persistent internal pressures from January 2026 protests met with intensified security crackdowns, executions, and arrests of alleged dissidents and militants, alongside ethnic insurgencies in regions such as Sistan-Baluchestan. Leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader has coincided with hardliner consolidation, IRGC appointments, and official warnings of internal "soft coup" suspicions during U.S. talks. Traders monitor these alongside stalled ceasefire negotiations, threats over the Strait of Hormuz, and dismantled alleged foreign-linked cells as key variables that could elevate or suppress near-term coup attempt probabilities without triggering broader regime instability.