Delcy Rodríguez assumed the role of interim president after Nicolás Maduro’s capture by US forces in January 2026, yet trader consensus assigns Maduro a 71.5% probability of holding the position at year-end 2026 and Rodríguez 23.5%. Ongoing US-backed talks between the Rodríguez government and opposition figures such as Dinorah Figuera have produced limited concessions, including prisoner releases and judicial reforms, but no presidential election date or leadership transition timeline. Washington’s emphasis on institutional stabilization and oil-sector cooperation before any vote, combined with Machado’s continued exclusion from the country, has kept near-term change off the table. These factors explain why markets view continuity under the current Chavista framework as the most likely outcome through December 2026.