Recent Houthi seizures of Mokha, Perim Island, and Yemen’s Red Sea coast in September gave the group direct oversight of the Bab el-Mandeb, enabling missile and drone threats that sharply reduced transits while Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched an early-October counteroffensive claiming to retake key positions and clear parts of the strait. Conflicting reports persist over Mayun Island and coastal roads, with traffic averaging roughly 30 vessels daily—well below pre-crisis norms yet above the market’s effective-closure threshold of a 7-day average of 10 arrivals. Ongoing Saudi airstrikes, Houthi retaliatory strikes on Saudi targets, and UN warnings of volatility sustain elevated war-risk premiums without halting commercial flows, leaving traders pricing modest year-end closure odds amid the contested military balance and potential for renewed escalation.