El Niño-driven drought has reduced rainfall across the Panama Canal watershed by about 34% from May through August 2026, lowering Gatun Lake levels to around 84.7 feet and prompting the Panama Canal Authority to cap daily transits at 32 from mid-September before easing them to 33 starting October 15 with a one-foot draft increase to 49 feet in Neopanamax locks. These measures conserve freshwater for lock operations amid expectations of a prolonged dry season into 2027, directly affecting shipping capacity, transit fees, and rerouting costs for container, LNG, and bulk carriers that normally handle roughly 5% of global maritime trade. Recent September precipitation has stabilized levels near seasonal norms, supporting the partial reversal of restrictions, though reservations remain essential and further cuts could follow if rainfall lags. Traders are monitoring October–November precipitation data and ACP fiscal-year guidance for signals on sustained throughput.