The US naval blockade of Iranian ports and shipping, reinstated in mid-July 2026 under President Trump, remains in active enforcement by CENTCOM as of mid-October, with over 135 vessels redirected, multiple ships disabled or destroyed, and Iranian crude exports held at zero. Trader consensus reflects this sustained pressure alongside stalled diplomacy: Vice President JD Vance has tied any easing to major Iranian uranium enrichment cuts, while Tehran has reviewed but not accepted US proposals tied to Strait of Hormuz reopening. Recent Iranian attacks on commercial traffic in the waterway have escalated, and Trump’s statements ruling out strikes before the November 3 midterms have not produced an official end or suspension announcement. Markets price low near-term probabilities for a qualifying US statement, with odds rising only modestly toward year-end amid ongoing enforcement and unresolved nuclear and sanctions demands. Key upcoming dates include the Federal Reserve decision and midterm elections.