US Vice President JD Vance stated on October 7, 2026, that Iran must deliver a meaningful reduction in its uranium enrichment capacity to satisfy US demands and conclude the seven-month conflict. Iranian facilities at Natanz and Fordow suffered significant damage from prior US-Israeli strikes, leaving the status of roughly 440 kg of 60%-enriched uranium uncertain, with portions potentially buried at Isfahan tunnels. Iran has withheld IAEA access to bombed sites and rejected downblending or surrender terms without sanctions relief and recognition of its enrichment rights. A June 2026 memorandum outlined interim inspection and dilution steps under IAEA oversight, yet negotiations remain stalled amid differing red lines on stockpile disposition. These factors sustain trader skepticism about near-term US physical possession through seizure, agreement, or verified transfer.