The Saudi-backed Yemeni government's early October launch of Operation Dawn of Yemen, backed by coalition airstrikes that neutralized over 1,400 Houthi fighters and reversed gains near the Bab al-Mandeb strait, has slowed Houthi momentum toward Aden and kept Polymarket-implied odds for entry by October 31 at just 4% and by December 31 at 26%. Recent Houthi drone and missile strikes on Aden airport and Saudi Aramco facilities have raised Red Sea shipping insurance costs and introduced short-term volatility in Brent crude and energy export benchmarks, yet the counteroffensive and additional Saudi strikes on Houthi oil depots appear to have stabilized the frontlines short of the interim capital. Traders are pricing in sustained coalition air support and potential further escalation around Taiz as key near-term catalysts that could alter the balance before year-end resolution.