Escalating Iranian attacks on tankers and expanded IRGC surveillance in the Strait of Hormuz have driven recent transits to multi-month lows, with AIS-visible commercial crossings averaging under 10 per day amid the ongoing regional conflict that began in February 2026. War-risk insurance premiums remain 15–30 times peacetime levels, deterring standard routing while high Brent crude prices near $106 reflect constrained flows that recently dropped below 3 million barrels on some days. Trader consensus clusters around 35–39 weekly transits as the modal outcome, with the closely contested <20 bucket reflecting uncertainty over whether intensified strikes or U.S.-facilitated corridors will stabilize or further suppress volumes ahead of the October 19–25 period.