**Ongoing Houthi-Saudi tensions and selective carrier risk tolerance are the main drivers keeping weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits clustered near 170–229 vessels, with the two leading bins (190–209 at 29.0% and 170–189 at 28.5%) nearly tied.** Recent escalation—Houthis striking Riyadh airport on October 10–11 and Saudi vows of retaliation—has sustained critical risk status, prompting continued avoidance by some tankers (especially VLCCs/Suezmaxes linked to Saudi ports) while container lines show more willingness to transit. September data indicated recovery momentum, with container crossings reaching post-crisis highs (e.g., 314 boxships for the month, up sharply month-on-month) and weekly totals around 264–290 vessels, but October figures reflect renewed caution. IMF PortWatch satellite AIS showed a 7-day average of ~30 vessels/day through early October (roughly 210 weekly), though dark transits (AIS off) likely understate true volume. Key swing factors include the pace of any fresh incidents during the week of October 12, the share of “dark” voyages that evade detection, and carrier-specific decisions such as Ocean Network Express’s reported return to the route versus sustained Cape of Good Hope diversions for higher-risk cargoes. Tanker flows remain more suppressed than containers due to the July 2026 Houthi blockade on Saudi-linked shipping and elevated war-risk premiums. With probabilities tightly bunched, outcomes hinge on whether visible traffic holds near the recent 30/day average or dips further amid the latest military exchanges—markets are pricing in this narrow band of uncertainty rather than a decisive breakout higher or lower.