Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.8% implied probability to no Hormuz Agreement before the November 2026 midterms, with the two conditional Senate outcomes each below 6%. Recent developments show ongoing Iran-Oman talks on revised shipping routes and revenue sharing through the Strait, alongside U.S.-Iran discussions on sanctions relief and a temporary ceasefire framework, yet no finalized pact has emerged that meets all parties' conditions on tolls, warship transit, mine clearance, or follow-on nuclear negotiations. Domestic U.S. political pressures, including Senate candidates highlighting energy prices and regional security, have not produced the rapid breakthrough needed to shift probabilities. These factors leave the market heavily weighted toward the baseline no-agreement outcome while keeping the linked Senate results as low-probability tail scenarios.