Traders price the chance of a qualifying US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by the October 23 deadline at roughly 11 percent, leaving the “No Hormuz Agreement” outcome dominant at 88-89 percent. Negotiations remain stalled after Iran presented seven conditions in mid-September; Tehran is still reviewing Washington’s reply delivered via Qatari and Pakistani intermediaries and has signaled that the response falls short on sequencing and scope. Recent Iranian statements emphasize that any reopening of the Strait must address Tehran’s priorities first, while the United States continues to insist on concurrent nuclear discussions. With only eleven days left, the narrow window and entrenched differences make a qualifying diplomatic instrument unlikely before the cutoff. The separate Senate component shows Democrats favored to retain or gain control in the 2026 midterms, keeping the two conditional “Agreement plus party” outcomes in the low single digits.