Ongoing military tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel have kept the Strait of Hormuz under severe restrictions since late February 2026, with commercial traffic averaging roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels. Iran maintains that vessels require permits and fees through its designated routes while enforcing compliance through IRGC actions, including recent projectile strikes and mine incidents on tankers using unauthorized paths. A U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, active since July, has further constrained flows, with recent attacks reaching wartime highs in early October and Iranian officials describing U.S. replies to reopening conditions as insufficient. These factors, combined with stalled diplomatic channels and continued risk to shipping, underpin trader consensus that normal traffic volumes are unlikely to resume before year-end.