**Most G20 heads of government and state maintain secure positions with limited near-term risks of departure before the end of 2026.** Incumbents such as U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and others face no scheduled elections or acute leadership challenges in the final months of the year. Recent leadership transitions in several G20 countries, including the United Kingdom and Japan earlier in 2026, have already occurred without further immediate volatility. Potential catalysts like Brazil’s October presidential runoff and Israel’s late-October parliamentary vote introduce some uncertainty, yet traders assign low probabilities to resulting changes materializing or proving decisive within the narrow remaining window. No widespread reports of resignations, health crises, or institutional pressures have emerged to shift this assessment. The 88.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with this baseline of continuity across the group, where skin-in-the-game consensus prices stability as the dominant outcome absent major late-breaking developments.