Ukrainian forces have intensified a sustained drone and missile campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure, fuel depots, air defenses, and logistics routes into occupied Crimea, including repeated strikes on the Kerch Bridge corridor and Sea of Azov shipping. This attrition effort, alongside Operation Vivaldi’s recent territorial gains in northern Donetsk that reversed Russian advances and inflicted net losses, has modestly lifted trader-implied odds for recapture by December 31, 2026 into the low-to-mid teens. However, the absence of a prepared ground offensive toward the heavily fortified peninsula, combined with Russia’s ability to reinforce via alternative routes and maintain defensive depth, keeps nearer-term probabilities near zero and the overall chance of full territorial recovery this year limited. Upcoming factors include further Western aid decisions, any escalation in long-range strikes, and potential diplomatic developments around energy or cease-fire talks.