Poland's recent formal attribution of a September arson attack on a Starlink station to Russian intelligence services, alongside arrests of suspects in Germany, reflects an established pattern of EU governments publicly linking hybrid incidents to Moscow. Similar attributions by Germany over the August drone incident at Leipzig airport and by Estonia over an August arson attack on a defense firm supplying Ukraine have reinforced trader views on the frequency of such events. These statements typically follow police investigations, intelligence assessments, and patterns involving proxies or criminal networks tied to Russian services, amid ongoing hybrid operations targeting infrastructure and Ukraine aid. Additional probes into power substation vandalism and defense sites continue across member states, with potential for further public attributions before key deadlines.
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