Recent inflation data showing consumer prices at 6.35% year-over-year in September, above the Bank of Russia's 4% target, alongside elevated underlying measures near 5-6% annualized, has tempered expectations for aggressive easing and supports the near-even split between no change and a modest 25 basis point cut. The central bank's September hold at 14% after prior reductions, combined with persistent inflation expectations and one-off supply pressures such as fuel costs, reinforces caution among traders. At the same time, the new three-year budget's alignment with July forecasts and use of tax revenues to offset spending has signaled room for gradual policy loosening without overheating demand. The October 23 meeting outcome, fresh price readings, and any signals on fiscal-monetary coordination could shift probabilities by clarifying whether inflation dynamics allow further adjustment before year-end.