Persistent above-target inflation, with consumer prices rising 6.35% year-over-year in September and accelerating further in early October, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the Bank of Russia's October 23 decision. The central bank held its key rate at 14% in September after ten prior cuts, citing heightened price pressures from capacity constraints and one-off factors while signaling caution in its baseline forecast for 6-7% inflation by year-end. Recent three-year budget parameters align with earlier projections and could support easing, yet analysts' consensus points to another hold amid elevated inflation expectations and a tight labor market. This positions no change as the clear leading outcome in market pricing, with modest probability attached to a small reduction and negligible odds of an increase.