Ongoing Russia-Ukraine hostilities and recent U.S.-Ukraine tensions, including the October 2026 diesel export agreement between Trump and Putin, have strained prospects for any trilateral gathering. Bilateral Trump-Putin and Trump-Zelenskyy contacts have occurred without producing a joint appearance, while Kremlin statements in October 2026 described such a summit as unlikely anytime soon. Traders assign 96% probability to “No” before 2027, reflecting the short remaining window, absence of scheduled trilateral diplomacy, and procedural hurdles to direct Putin-Zelenskyy engagement. A sudden breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations or an unscheduled summit announcement could still alter the outcome.