Russia's consistent rejection of direct leader-level meetings with Ukraine, including recent dismissals of proposed summits at the G20 or via temporary ceasefires, underpins trader expectations that no Putin-Zelenskyy encounter will occur by late 2027. Moscow has prioritized long-term peace agreements on its terms over interim truces or elections-related pauses, as stated by Kremlin officials following Zelenskyy's October 2026 proposals. Ongoing US-mediated trilateral contacts and an announced energy ceasefire have not produced verifiable breakthroughs or leader commitments, while military actions continue. This dynamic sustains the dominant "no meeting" outcome at 82.5 percent, with scattered low probabilities across venues reflecting limited near-term diplomatic momentum for any bilateral summit.