Russia's insistence on a comprehensive peace deal incorporating territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality, rather than any interim ceasefire, continues to block direct leader-level engagement with Ukraine. Recent U.S. efforts, including the announced energy ceasefire and proposed trilateral talks, have not produced verifiable commitments from Moscow, while the Kremlin has rejected Zelenskyy's offers for meetings at venues such as the G20 or neutral third countries. Persistent Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and demands that any summit occur only in Moscow further signal limited interest in near-term bilateral diplomacy. This dynamic underpins trader expectations of no Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before 2027. A verified battlefield reversal or binding U.S.-brokered framework could still alter the trajectory.