Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing for the 2027 French presidential election at 41.9% amid consistent first-round polling leads of 33-37% in recent surveys, including a Toluna Harris Interactive poll from early October showing her at 35-37% across scenarios. Growing polarization as Macron’s term ends, combined with economic weakness and a fragmented center, has boosted support for National Rally and La France Insoumise candidates. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s recent polling surge to 16-19% has positioned him as the most frequent projected runoff opponent, though Le Pen holds large margins in head-to-head tests. Édouard Philippe at 21.5% reflects his role as the leading centrist or center-right alternative when unopposed in that space, while David Lisnard’s 13.6% captures right-wing backing in certain lineups. The first round is set for April 2027.