Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term concludes in May 2027, leaving limited scope for new initiatives in the final months of 2026 amid a fragmented National Assembly and the onset of the presidential campaign season. Historical patterns show repeated references to referendums under Article 11 that have not materialized, with recent legislative priorities such as assisted dying handled through parliamentary channels instead. Opposition proposals for constitutional changes via popular vote center on post-2027 scenarios rather than immediate action by the incumbent. Traders therefore reflect broad consensus that no referendum will be called by year-end, though an unforeseen fiscal or institutional crisis could still prompt one within the resolution window.