France's 2027 budget process opened in the National Assembly on October 13 amid entrenched political fragmentation, with the government lacking a stable majority and facing unified opposition from the left and Rassemblement National on key revenue and spending measures. Recent commission rejections of the receipts section and amendments signal continued procedural risks, echoing 2025-2026 delays resolved only via article 49.3 or late special laws. Trader consensus at 52% implied probability for passage by December 31 reflects this balance between constitutional 70-day timelines, potential ordonnance recourse after mid-December, and upcoming catalysts including the October 20 first-part vote, November 17 full reading, and Senate review that could either enable compromise or trigger censure motions.