Russia's last nuclear explosive test occurred in 1990, and no detonation has taken place since. Recent trader positioning reflects statements from U.S. President Trump signaling potential resumption of American testing, met by Russian warnings of reciprocal measures and confirmation that the Novaya Zemlya site remains prepared. Putin has directed feasibility reviews without ordering immediate action, while Russian officials note preparations could require months to years. Missile launches and large-scale strategic exercises have occurred, but these fall short of explosive nuclear tests under market rules. The implied probability for a test by December 31, 2026, remains low amid ongoing CTBT compliance rhetoric and diplomatic uncertainty.