Recent elite tensions in Russia, including FSB internal rivalries, corruption arrests linked to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, and reports of heightened Kremlin security measures, have fueled speculation about possible challenges to Vladimir Putin. Small public protests and insider claims of dissatisfaction among some officials have added to trader attention, yet no coordinated military or institutional move against the leadership has materialized. Putin retains firm oversight of security services and the military command, limiting organized opposition. Market pricing reflects this assessment, with traders assigning low implied probability to a verifiable coup attempt before year-end amid ongoing Ukraine conflict pressures and economic strains.