Ongoing hostilities and Russia's rejection of temporary ceasefires continue to block any path to a verifiable peace agreement that could trigger a Ukrainian referendum before 2027. Kremlin statements emphasize a comprehensive settlement over interim measures, as seen in its dismissal of President Zelenskyy's 60-day ceasefire proposal for elections or votes, while recent energy infrastructure strikes by both sides have undermined U.S.-backed truce efforts. Ukrainian polls indicate strong public preference for referendums on territorial issues alongside security guarantees, yet constitutional procedures and wartime conditions remain unaddressed amid the stalemate. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched barriers, though a sudden U.S.-brokered framework with enforceable terms or a decisive battlefield shift could still open a narrow window for resolution within the period.