**Recent diplomatic actions in the EU-Russia relationship center on targeted expulsions of lower-level diplomats and staff rather than ambassadors.** Hungary ordered 10 Russian diplomatic personnel to leave in September 2026 after a government change, citing unacceptable activities under the Vienna Convention; Russia responded with reciprocal expulsions of Hungarian diplomats. Germany and other members have pursued consulate closures, staff reductions, and measures tied to hybrid threats such as sabotage attempts, while the EU discusses collective steps including tighter travel notifications or limits on Russian diplomats' movement outside host countries. These steps reflect ongoing concerns over espionage and interference but stop short of expelling heads of mission. No EU country has moved against a Russian ambassador in the current period, and coordinated policy focuses on restrictions and sanctions packages instead of high-level diplomatic ruptures. Traders assign an 80.5% probability to "No" because such an ambassador-level expulsion by year-end would represent a sharper escalation than the pattern of calibrated, reciprocal measures observed so far.