Escalating Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israel conflict that began in late February 2026, have driven current trader consensus toward sharply reduced transits. As of mid-October, independent AIS and PortWatch data show daily commercial crossings averaging 4–9 vessels—roughly 6–11% of the pre-crisis norm of 74–85—following a fresh surge that included multiple strikes and sinkings between October 6 and 14. War-risk insurance premiums have risen 15–30 times peacetime levels, rendering most transits uneconomic and prompting major carriers to reroute or suspend use. Oil throughput has fallen as low as 2.9 million barrels on some days, with Brent crude holding above $104 per barrel. With no de-escalation signals and the end-October window still two weeks away, market-implied odds heavily favor persistence of these constrained volumes.