Recent Israeli elections on October 27 and Spain's snap vote on November 29 create the primary near-term risks, with Netanyahu's Likud bloc in a dead-heat contest against opposition forces and Sánchez's minority coalition trailing conservatives amid housing defeats and scandals. Traders assign Netanyahu the highest exit probability among listed leaders because a narrow loss or coalition failure could force his departure before year-end, while Sánchez faces similar legislative and electoral pressure. "None before 2027" leads overall as the most probable outcome given short resolution windows, uncertain government formation timelines, and stable positions for other figures like Zelenskyy or Trump through December. These implied probabilities reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of electoral math, coalition dynamics, and historical patterns of incumbents surviving tight votes.