Russia's recent partial lifting of diesel export restrictions, effective October 10 following a Trump-Putin agreement, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against reinstatement of the ban by October 31. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that production volumes suffice for domestic needs while enabling initial shipments of 500,000 tons, with targets scaling to 3–3.5 million metric tons monthly by year-end to approach pre-crisis levels. This aligns with easing global supply pressures amid elevated U.S. diesel prices and reflects trader consensus that policy momentum favors expanded exports over renewed curbs. Key risks include renewed Ukrainian strikes on refineries that could tighten domestic balances or force reimposition of limits to stabilize local markets.