**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in July 2026 targeting IRGC missile and air defense systems, have drawn attention to the island's strategic position near key shipping lanes.** Tehran has responded by reinforcing positions on Hengam and nearby islands such as Larak with additional troops and mines while continuing to assert full sovereignty and administrative control. A September 2026 incident involving a struck commercial vessel near the island, which Iran attributed to external actors, further highlighted tensions but produced no verified change in authority. Trader consensus reflected in low Yes probabilities across resolution dates indicates that no amphibious operation, negotiated transfer, or loss of effective control has materialized, with Iranian statements and reporting confirming continued governance. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments in the broader conflict could still influence outcomes before any specific deadline.