Iran maintains firm sovereignty over Hormuz Island amid the broader US-Israel-Iran conflict that began in February 2026. Recent weeks have seen intensified Iranian attacks on commercial shipping through the adjacent Strait of Hormuz, including drone strikes, mines, and new tactics using small-boat spotters, alongside Iranian claims of full control over the waterway and US assertions that regional forces ensure open transit. Oil flows have fluctuated sharply below pre-war levels, with multiple vessels damaged or sunk in October alone. No verified military operations, occupations, or diplomatic shifts have targeted the island itself. Trader assessments of any near-term change in its status therefore hinge on escalation risks, naval engagements, or negotiated outcomes in the surrounding conflict zone.