**Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the northern Persian Gulf, has remained under uninterrupted Iranian control amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in early 2026.** U.S. strikes have targeted other Iranian islands and oil facilities such as Kharg, Abu Musa, and sites near the Strait of Hormuz, yet no verified military action, seizure, or sovereignty shift has affected Farsi itself. Iran continues to assert naval authority in surrounding waters, including vessel interdictions near the island, while maintaining red lines against external operations. Trader-implied probabilities for any loss of control by late 2026 dates stay extremely low, reflecting the absence of conditions for a rapid change in administrative or military control. Key variables include potential further strikes on Gulf targets, IRGC responses, and shipping disruptions, though structural barriers such as the island’s restricted status and Iran’s defensive posture limit near-term shifts.