Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment by Iran's Assembly of Experts shortly after his father Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 US-Israeli strikes has anchored trader assessments, with the market pricing an 87.8% chance he retains de facto head-of-state authority through December 31. The succession, supported by the Revolutionary Guards and clerical bodies, established institutional continuity amid conflict, sidelining other clerics such as Alireza Arafi or political figures like Masoud Pezeshkian and Abbas Araghchi. Recent months have featured official statements and limited video releases countering health speculation tied to the strikes, alongside reports of Mojtaba exercising oversight through secure channels. Low probabilities for alternatives, including a leadership vacuum or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi, reflect the system's rapid stabilization and limited near-term disruption signals before year-end.